In Part 1 of this series, we made the case that the trade war is a strategic pivot point for Calgary’s finance leaders, and that Alberta’s relative insulation gives us breathing room to prepare rather than react.
That was the big picture.
Now let’s talk about what happens when you actually have to operate in it. Because since we published Part 1, the situation has escalated. On August 22, the U.S. imposed 50% tariffs on roughly $28 billion in Canadian goods. Canada’s dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs took effect September 8 at 12:01 a.m., hitting nearly 700 American products at rates ranging from 15% to 50%. And just this week, another round of U.S. tariffs landed on outboard motorboats, metal, and paper products, while others, cement, sugar, toilet paper, were quietly removed.
The rules are changing week by week.
For Calgary finance teams, that volatility isn’t a headline. It’s a planning problem. This is your survival guide.
The Calgary Reality Check
Before we get tactical, let’s ground ourselves in the numbers, because the picture is more nuanced than the national headlines suggest.
Alberta remains less exposed to the U.S. tariffs than other provinces. Trevor Tombe estimates the effective tariff rate facing Alberta exporters will increase by only about 0.5 percentage points, one-fifth of the national average. Ontario and Quebec face increases of about five percentage points; B.C. about seven.
But here’s the twist: the counter-tariffs may actually hit Alberta harder than the U.S. tariffs do. As ATB Financial chief economist Mark Parsons noted, that’s because Alberta is less exposed through energy exemptions and has a smaller manufacturing base. The pain is coming from a different direction than most expected.
At the municipal level, the City of Calgary estimates the trade war could cost nearly half a billion dollars. Between March 2025 and August 2026, the city has already paid $1.2 million more for goods and services, with another $5.7 million in contracts under negotiation or review. Calgary’s transit system alone faces an estimated $84 million in tariff costs on top of $535 million in committed spending.
This isn’t abstract. It’s in your budget.
The Survival Guide: Five Moves to Make Now
1. Stress-Test Cash Flow Under Multiple Scenarios
If you haven’t already, now is the time to run downside scenarios. Not just one, multiple.
In our earlier piece on cash flow stress testing, we noted that rising freight costs, persistent inflation, and tighter credit conditions were converging to create unprecedented pressure. That was in May. It’s even more true now.
Action item: Build three scenarios, base case, downside case, and severe downside. In your severe case, model what happens if input costs rise another 10–15% and sales slow by 20%. Where does your cash break? What levers do you pull?
2. Diversify the Supply Chain—For Real This Time
Talk about supply chain diversification has been around for years. The tariff war is forcing action.
Calgary’s Tool Shed Brewing offers a template. When the first round of U.S. tariffs hit aluminum cans in 2025, they switched to a Chinese supplier. That required more planning and tighter cash flow management, larger orders, paid further in advance, but it insulated them from the tariff. They found it was more cost-effective in the long run.
At espy Experience in Inglewood, owner Megan Szanik has moved away from U.S. trade shows entirely, importing directly from Europe. She’s budgeting roughly 30% more for some expansion materials because she simply can’t predict how products will be classified under the tariffs.
Action item: Identify your top five U.S.-sourced inputs. For each, ask: is there a Canadian alternative? A non-U.S. alternative? What would it cost to switch? What would the lead time look like? Start the conversation now, before you’re forced to.
3. Understand Your Exposure—Product by Product
The frustrating reality is that tariff classification is confusing. As Szanik put it, “We think there’s a 50 per cent tariff, but it might be a 25 per cent tariff, but we’re not actually sure.”
At Tuxedo Source for Sports in northeast Calgary, the impact varies by sport. Hockey sticks have avoided the new tariffs because they’re imported through Canadian subsidiaries. Baseball equipment? That’s a different story.
Action item: Work with your customs broker or trade advisor to map your imports against the tariff schedules. Don’t assume, verify. The Canada Border Services Agency has published the full list of affected products.
4. Leverage Government Support
Ottawa has unveiled a $7.5-billion assistance package for employers and employees affected by the trade dispute. Alberta has launched an online tariff impact portal to allow businesses to report supply-chain disruptions. A provincial cabinet committee co-chaired by Finance Minister Jason Nixon and Jobs Minister Joseph Schow is exploring additional supports for small and medium businesses.
BDC’s $1 billion tariff-impact financing program is another lever worth exploring.
Action item: If you’re feeling the pinch, don’t wait. Explore what’s available. Loan guarantees, wage subsidies, and tariff relief programs could be critical for managing immediate cash flow pressure.
5. Plan for the Long Haul
A source told The Globe and Mail that Carney has no immediate plans to return to the negotiating table. Ontario is reportedly planning for at least two years of tariffs.
This isn’t a short-term disruption. It’s a new operating environment.
The finance leaders who will thrive are the ones who treat this as a permanent shift, not a temporary storm to be weathered. That means baking tariff scenarios into your standard budgeting and forecasting processes. It means building flexibility into supplier contracts. It means keeping a close eye on cash conversion cycles.
The Leadership Opportunity for CPAs
Part 1 made the case that this moment is a mandate for finance leaders. Part 2 is about what that mandate looks like in practice.
Be the calm, informed voice. The situation is evolving daily. Your leadership and your clients need perspective, not panic. The finance professionals who can translate tariff chaos into clear, actionable insight will be invaluable.
Advise on supply chain resilience. Encourage diversification. Explore alternative markets. The best time to build resilience was yesterday. The second-best time is today.
Monitor government support. Programs are being announced regularly. Be ready to advise on what’s available and how to access it.
Model multiple futures. The organizations that prepare for the worst while positioning for the best will outperform. Your scenario models are the roadmap.
As one Calgary business owner put it: “A big part of whether you’ll survive or not is if you have that kind of entrepreneurial spirit and resilience to find really unique, creative ways to get through these things that seem insurmountable.”
That’s not just advice for business owners. It’s advice for the finance professionals who guide them.
The Bottom Line
The trade war is messy. The rules are changing week by week. And the impact on Calgary businesses is real, but uneven.
Alberta’s relative insulation from the worst of the U.S. tariffs is a genuine advantage. But the counter-tariffs are hitting from a different angle, and the uncertainty itself is a cost that every finance team is paying.
The organizations that succeed will be the ones that move from reactive to proactive. That stress tests their cash flow. That diversifies their supply chains. That knows their exposure product by product.
At BullsEye Recruitment, we’re seeing increased demand for finance leaders who can navigate this kind of complexity, professionals who can model multiple scenarios, communicate clearly with leadership, and maintain financial discipline in an uncertain environment.
This is Part 2 of our Trade War 2026 series. Stay tuned for Part 3.
About BullsEye Recruitment Inc.
BullsEye Recruitment Inc. is a Calgary-based boutique recruitment firm specializing in placing experienced accounting and finance professionals at senior levels. We understand the Alberta economy, the challenges finance leaders face, and what it takes to find the right people the first time.
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